Politics is what it is, politics. Accurately described in
the second half of its definition in the Merriam Webster dictionary “the debate
or conflict among individuals or parties having or hoping to achieve power.”
And sadly this is exactly what we see occurring with the sexual harassment scandal
on Parliament Hill recently. Parties using any opportunity to denigrate their
opponent heading into an election that is less than one full calendar away. Politics
seems to be about public policy as much as it is about public relations. In the
constant public relations battle that is politics, it is to be expected.
We saw the rhetoric immediately after Trudeau had suspended
fellow Liberal MPs Massimo Pacetti and Scott Andrews. The NDP’s Stephen Mulcair
decried how irresponsible and harmful it was to the victims to make these
harassment claims public against their wishes. He stated, rather ironically,
that Mr. Trudeau was simply politically grandstanding.
Think for a second if Trudeau did nothing. How would that
look politically? Heading into the October election – though it could be
earlier – Trudeau would most likely be accused of trying to sweep bad publicity
under the rug.
While he would probably privately reprimand and punish those
MPs in some way, the public
backlash might sink the Liberal’s chances of
becoming the new governing party. It would be a political weapon used against Mr.
Trudeau, to demonstrate to the public how he is unfit to govern. Another arrow
in the “Liberals are scandalous” quiver. Evoking the scandals such as the
Sponsorship Scandal which catapulted the Conservatives to power back in 2006
I would say that Mr. Trudeau was in a situation that seemed
to have only one option. If he did nothing it would be potentially disastrous
for his immediate political future. While some question why he had to hold a
press conference to announce he was suspending two members over sexual abuse,
he would have had to explain their absence at some point. I don’t think the
media would accept the fact that two Liberal MPs were told to pack up and go
home without questioning the reason. If Mr. Trudeau mislead the media about
why the MPs were suspended, it would certainly be used against him.
There are politics on both sides. To describe the steps
taken by Mr. Trudeau as simply the moral thing to do would be looking at politics
with blinders on. Mr. Trudeau clearly stands to benefit somewhat with female
voters – though this effect is debatable. I think a better description would be
disarming a public relations time bomb.
It is unfortunate that a situation as serious as sexual
harassment gets turned into a political hot potato. I think this reality is in certain
ways more insensitive to the victims. The story has gained more interest
because all sides are getting in on the controversy. Though it might not have
fallen completely out of the public eye, it wouldn’t be as close to the front
page as it has been.
A lot of the time the average voter just sees the headline
and the main talking points and form an opinion from there. It has nothing to
do with the intelligence of the average voter, but has more to do with time
invested. Most people just hear about these things when they break. And they
usually don’t stick around to hear the details as they become available.
Another political fact is that the NDP see the Liberals as
their main rival. They know that they aren’t going to syphon any voters from
the Conservative party. Their best strategy in the upcoming election is
limiting the amount of people who voted for them in 2011 jumping to the
Liberals.
While the Great Bloc Quebecois implosion of 2011 contributed
to the NDP being the official opposition for the first time. Quebec seems to be
swinging back towards the Liberal party. A province which back in 2011 had a
deep distrust of the provincial Liberals. That same Liberal party is now back
in power and big gains in Quebec in 2015 look very likely. The Liberals lost 7
seats while the NDP gained 58 seats in Quebec alone. They also benefitted
greatly from picking up many seats from the Liberals in other places around the
country.
There many provinces in 2011 where Liberals lost ground and
NDP gained. The biggest of which was Ontario – where Liberals lost 27 seats
while the NDP gained 5. While Ontario became a deeper shade of blue with 22
Conservative pickups, I don’t think the NDP have their sights set on those
seats. Flipping Liberal seats is much more attainable for ideological reasons.
Polling suggests that if we had an election today it would
most likely be a Liberal minority. This according to electionalmanac which uses
many different polls to tabulate its results. It currently states 41 per cent
of those polled intend to vote Liberal, 32 per cent Conservative, 17 per cent
NDP and 5 per cent for both the Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party. This
indicator and many other analysts are suggesting that a Liberal minority is the
most likely result of the 2015 Canadian federal election.
That was a little bit statistic heavy, but I think it
illustrated the stakes involved. Any little thing will be latched on to like a
barnacle for political success. Anything that has the ability to influence
public opinion will be seized upon.
This may be the longest election cycle ever experienced in
Canada, and that is a big reason that this is being made into a political issue. It
may also be the first legitimate three way race for federal leadership that
Canada has seen in a long time. With the stakes so high, needless to say,
everything will be used as ammunition. Like when soldiers would run out of
musket rounds and would start firing rocks and other objects from their gun.
The likelihood for a Liberal-NDP governing coalition is high. While the NDP hold out hope that they will be elected as the governing party, they are also pragmatists. They also know how to read polls.To gain more seats and especially Liberal ones would increase their influence within the minority. Some of have suggested this recent dust up may have soured their relationship, that this might impact a potential coalition. I think these men have been in politics long enough to understand how the game is played. Power is what they desire and together For all the small-l liberals in Canada, or just for people that are sick of
Harper and the Conservatives, they hope this won’t stand in the way of that
political alliance.
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