The Politics of Opportunity

Politics is what it is, politics. Accurately described in the second half of its definition in the Merriam Webster dictionary “the debate or conflict among individuals or parties having or hoping to achieve power.” And sadly this is exactly what we see occurring with the sexual harassment scandal on Parliament Hill recently. Parties using any opportunity to denigrate their opponent heading into an election that is less than one full calendar away. Politics seems to be about public policy as much as it is about public relations. In the constant public relations battle that is politics, it is to be expected.

We saw the rhetoric immediately after Trudeau had suspended fellow Liberal MPs Massimo Pacetti and Scott Andrews. The NDP’s Stephen Mulcair decried how irresponsible and harmful it was to the victims to make these harassment claims public against their wishes. He stated, rather ironically, that Mr. Trudeau was simply politically grandstanding.

Think for a second if Trudeau did nothing. How would that look politically? Heading into the October election – though it could be earlier – Trudeau would most likely be accused of trying to sweep bad publicity under the rug.

While he would probably privately reprimand and punish those MPs in some way, the public 

backlash might sink the Liberal’s chances of becoming the new governing party. It would be a political weapon used against Mr. Trudeau, to demonstrate to the public how he is unfit to govern. Another arrow in the “Liberals are scandalous” quiver. Evoking the scandals such as the Sponsorship Scandal which catapulted the Conservatives to power back in 2006

I would say that Mr. Trudeau was in a situation that seemed to have only one option. If he did nothing it would be potentially disastrous for his immediate political future. While some question why he had to hold a press conference to announce he was suspending two members over sexual abuse, he would have had to explain their absence at some point. I don’t think the media would accept the fact that two Liberal MPs were told to pack up and go home without questioning the reason. If Mr. Trudeau mislead the media about why the MPs were suspended, it would certainly be used against him.

There are politics on both sides. To describe the steps taken by Mr. Trudeau as simply the moral thing to do would be looking at politics with blinders on. Mr. Trudeau clearly stands to benefit somewhat with female voters – though this effect is debatable. I think a better description would be disarming a public relations time bomb.

It is unfortunate that a situation as serious as sexual harassment gets turned into a political hot potato. I think this reality is in certain ways more insensitive to the victims. The story has gained more interest because all sides are getting in on the controversy. Though it might not have fallen completely out of the public eye, it wouldn’t be as close to the front page as it has been.

A lot of the time the average voter just sees the headline and the main talking points and form an opinion from there. It has nothing to do with the intelligence of the average voter, but has more to do with time invested. Most people just hear about these things when they break. And they usually don’t stick around to hear the details as they become available.

Another political fact is that the NDP see the Liberals as their main rival. They know that they aren’t going to syphon any voters from the Conservative party. Their best strategy in the upcoming election is limiting the amount of people who voted for them in 2011 jumping to the Liberals.

While the Great Bloc Quebecois implosion of 2011 contributed to the NDP being the official opposition for the first time. Quebec seems to be swinging back towards the Liberal party. A province which back in 2011 had a deep distrust of the provincial Liberals. That same Liberal party is now back in power and big gains in Quebec in 2015 look very likely. The Liberals lost 7 seats while the NDP gained 58 seats in Quebec alone. They also benefitted greatly from picking up many seats from the Liberals in other places around the country.

There many provinces in 2011 where Liberals lost ground and NDP gained. The biggest of which was Ontario – where Liberals lost 27 seats while the NDP gained 5. While Ontario became a deeper shade of blue with 22 Conservative pickups, I don’t think the NDP have their sights set on those seats. Flipping Liberal seats is much more attainable for ideological reasons.  

Polling suggests that if we had an election today it would most likely be a Liberal minority. This according to electionalmanac which uses many different polls to tabulate its results. It currently states 41 per cent of those polled intend to vote Liberal, 32 per cent Conservative, 17 per cent NDP and 5 per cent for both the Bloc Quebecois and the Green Party. This indicator and many other analysts are suggesting that a Liberal minority is the most likely result of the 2015 Canadian federal election.

That was a little bit statistic heavy, but I think it illustrated the stakes involved. Any little thing will be latched on to like a barnacle for political success. Anything that has the ability to influence public opinion will be seized upon.

This may be the longest election cycle ever experienced in Canada, and that is a big reason that this is being made into a political issue. It may also be the first legitimate three way race for federal leadership that Canada has seen in a long time. With the stakes so high, needless to say, everything will be used as ammunition. Like when soldiers would run out of musket rounds and would start firing rocks and other objects from their gun.

The likelihood for a Liberal-NDP governing coalition is high. While the NDP hold out hope that they will be elected as the governing party, they are also pragmatists. They also know how to read polls.To gain more seats and especially Liberal ones would increase their influence within the minority. Some of have suggested this recent dust up may have soured their relationship, that this might impact a potential coalition. I think these men have been in politics long enough to understand how the game is played. Power is what they desire and together  For all the small-l liberals in Canada, or just for people that are sick of Harper and the Conservatives, they hope this won’t stand in the way of that political alliance.